The "International Action Network on Small Arms" is touting on their website a decrease in gun deaths and overall homicides in Brazil proclaiming that it is a direct result of Brazil's new anti-gun laws. The laws include:
- Tougher licensing requirements.
- Ban on carrying guns.
- Firearms registration.
- Buyback program that destroyed 460,000 weapons.
- Public awareness program.
- Security sector reform.
The Claim: It's all about guns
According to IANSA it's all about the guns. The front page blurb states, "Reforming gun laws saves lives - 2007 brought hard evidence from Brazil that better laws can prevent deaths by firearms....The death rate has fallen steadily since the Disarmament Statute was adopted in 2003." Clicking on the link jumps to a page boldly titled, "Brazil's gun laws saved 24,000 lives: report"
To help bolster their argument they provide this graph titled "Brazil Success" (click to enlarge):

Well, it won't be long before the other gun control nuts get started on this one so let's go ahead and see how well these numbers hold up.
First, never trust statistics. Second, never trust statistics coming from a government. Third, never trust statistics coming from a government when quoted by an activist group. If you don't understand why then we suggest you read
this book.
So what's wrong here?
Where the Crime Came From

First, the meteoric rise in crime in South America is not the result of guns. Since the early 1980's South America has been weighed down by wars and drug cartells that have caused the sky-rocketing crime rates throughout the region. It has not been a nice place to live. The police in Brazil are well known for corruption as are the politicians. Blaming all of this crime on guns is patently absurd. The crime occurs because the culture has come unhinged by war, organized crime, and political corruption. During the same period cell phones began being widely used in South America by the criminals. In at least one instance such cell phones were used to help instigate a prison riot by cartel members. Should we blame the increase in crime on cell phones because criminals use them to commit crimes? Should we begin licensing them and restricting their use? Should we ban them altogether?
The Problem With Statistics
Second, this drop in murder rates is not the result of a single effort or law. Take another look at this list of things the government was doing. Not all of them were about gun laws. There was a public awareness program (which we are not told how that worked) and there was a portion directed at reforming the security sector (read: police). Are we to believe that neither of these two options helped?

In addition, Brazil has been fighting hard against crime on a number of other fronts. One city in 2006 was able to slash its crime rate by taking an amazingly obvious step: they closed the bars early. According to a
report in the San Francisco Chronicle Diadema (which is known as one of Brazil's most violent towns), has been turned "into an urban model".
The law has cut homicides by nearly half and has slashed other crimes by as much as 80 percent after forcing nearly all of the city's 4,800 bars and restaurants in 2002 to stop selling alcohol between 11 p.m. and 6 a.m. Since then, the homicide rate has dropped by 47 percent, traffic accidents by 30 percent, assaults against women by 55 percent, and alcohol-related hospital admissions by 80 percent, according to Miki.
The Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation in Berkley was instrumental in helping institute the program that brought such startling results to Diadema. Joel Grube of the institute had this to say:
Diadema had a large homicide rate, and we estimated that based on the data they gave us, the intervention prevented about 270 homicides over a three-year period. That is stunningly large. It is a huge, huge change, and I've never seen an intervention that has had an impact of this size.
Now, take a moment and look back at the date when they implemented this change: 2002. And, since Diadema saw such a precipitious drop in crime their sister cities took note as well. 120 of them have instituted similar laws that shut down the bars at 11:00. In fact, their federal government is encouraging these laws by offering cities additional federal funds for city police if they follow suit.
The credit goes to Mayor Jose de Fikippi Jr. He took a look at crime within his community and asked a simple question: "Why?" Then he kept asking the question until he found the answer.
The study showed that the majority of crimes -- and 60 percent of all homicides -- occurred at night in and around the city's bars and restaurants. De Filippi then canvassed public opinion over a possible alcohol ban and found that many residents supported restrictions. The next year, the City Council prohibited alcohol sales after 11 p.m.
And it wasn't just a law put on the books. Each night four police cars circulate through the city looking for bars that violate the partial prohibition. And those cars are not staffed by a single cop or two. Instead it has military, local police, and police inspectors all ride in the cars together to make sure corruption doesn't subvert the process.
And that's just one separate program completely ignored by IANSA. Other programs aimed at fighting military, police, and political corruption also have undoubtedly helped as have major crack-downs on drug cartells.
That's the problem with graphs like the one above and studies that focus on one variable. They assume a direct correlation between one event and another. That's not a valid statistical model and if the folks at IANSA had taken a college statistics class (or cared) they would have known that.
Disarming Only the Law-AbidingThere is another problem though with this "study". It touts tougher licensing requirements, bans on concealed carry, firearms registration, and a buyback program as directly causing a reduction in crime. It ignores the reality that crime is almost always committed by career criminals and rarely by law-abiding citizens.
A criminal is not going to license his guns let alone register them. Nor is he going to abide by laws that say he can only have two handguns, two rifles, and two shotguns. He's already engaged in murdering, drug dealing, stealing, and raping. Why would he care to fill out the paperwork too?
He's also not going to care whether or not some cop in Brasilia thinks he shouldn't be carrying a gun - particularly when that cop is
part of the same cartell or can be bought for a few bills.
And he's not going to sell his guns to the police either. He already makes enough money off selling drugs, knocking over the local grocery store, stealing cars, and holding up people.
So who do these laws really affect? The
law-abiding citizens!
Only the law-abiding citizen is going to fill out the paperwork when buying a gun (the criminal buys his on the street anyway). Only the law-abiding citizen is going to abide by purchasing limits. Only the law-abiding citizen is going to leave his gun at home. Only the poor law-abiding citizen is going to sell a gun for a few bucks to put food on the table. Only the law abiding-citizen is disarmed and left defenseless in a nation with a
murder rate similar to that of a war zone.
Take a look at the initiative by First Command of the Capital (a Brazilian gang) that launched attacks on police, banks, and buses and netted a body count of about 200 in 2006. The gun laws didn't help those 200 did they? However, they did help the gangsters who were more assured than ever that the civilians who were included in the blood bath (which also included police and other gang members) would not be armed and would not be an obstacle.
A Thinking ErrorThe problem with these gun laws is that they arise from a belief that somehow guns magically cause murders. Where is the empirical proof that guns cause murders? Are normal people turned into homicidal maniacs simply because there's a gun around? Are people unable to kill other people unless they have a gun? Does a gun get up, load itself, walk down the street, and fire on its own and kill a person at the local bar?
Guns do not cause murders - people do. Murder rates don't drop because there are fewer guns, they drop because people murder fewer people.
The Real IssueAs we look at Brazil and similar coutries we need to ask a more basic question - what are law-abiding citizens going to do until their corrupt governments clean things up? According to folks like IANSA they should give up their right to self defense, lay down any weapon that could equalize their day-to-day struggle against criminals, and stay quiet. Let the rapist rape the woman. Let the gang member break into the old man's house. Let the public assassinations go uncontested. Just lay down and take it.
This mentality strips the honest person of not only her right to self defense, but also of many of her other rights. In an effort to stop the criminals it's only the honest people who are made to suffer, and suffer they do. In Brazil there are reports that half of the population is afraid to walk down the street. Their destiny has been stripped from them by corrupt politicians, sold-out cops, sadistic gangs, and now by those who are taking away their last civil right - the right to self defense.